Container shipping rates eastbound across the Pacific have continued to decline as shipping lines increase the number of empty voyages amid weak demand expected to persist through the end of this year.
The SONAR Ocean TEU Import Index for October 1 was down less than 1% from the previous week, but down 14.58% year-on-year.
Demand increased slightly due to pre-sale preparations ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, but not enough to offset the drop in rates.
Consumer concerns about rising prices, tariff worries and changes in trade patterns are forecast to keep growth subdued for the rest of the year.
The Trump administration’s second pause in retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods, announced in August, has yet to lead to a lasting improvement in the situation on the busiest trade route between Asia and the United States. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamison Greer called tariffs on Chinese goods, at around 55%, a “good status quo” as the two countries continue to seek a mutually beneficial trade agreement.
But if a deal is not reached or is suspended, tariffs will return on November 14 to their previous levels: about 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on American goods entering China, which brought trade between the countries to a virtual standstill earlier this year.
Complicating matters further, China said this week it could impose high port charges and ban some ships from its ports in retaliation for punitive US tariffs on China-linked vessels that take effect on October 14.
Last week, freight rates between Asia and the US West Coast fell 15% to $1,853 per 20-foot container equivalent unit, while rates between Asia and the US East Coast rose 16% to $3,967 per unit, according to Freightos’ Baltic Index.
The last time West Coast prices were this low was in December 2023, when spot rates fell to around $1,744 per FEU.
According to Sea-Intelligence, as of October 5, carriers had canceled or postponed approximately 13% of scheduled trans-Pacific sailings. However, this is lower than a year ago, when during Golden Week, capacity on the West Coast fell by 15.4% and on the East Coast by 11.9%. For 2025, the planned reductions were only 3.8% and 4.8%.
